Monday 18 January 2010

The demise of the TFG and the return of the warlords (AHSW):- Ethiopia’s second invasion of Somalia

The Author is a political analyst based in London
January 15, 2010

It is the innate human instinct that conditions us to look forward to the future for the mitigations and alleviations of our present nuisance and misfortunes. The unwritten faith we have on the future is what keeps us from hopelessness and rarely the future fails us as the world progresses continually for the better, albeit at different speeds. The Somali case is one of those rarities where the populace gave up on future itself because in their world yesterday was better then today and certainly today dreads from tomorrow’s visit. They always look back last year and wish it stays in anticipation of the horrors and the death blows the New Year carries under its wings. The forgotten people of Somalia certainly have a good reason not to well come this New Year as the wreckage left in their hands by the last two decades is enough to convince any sceptic. Somalia at best secures, without fail, its place at the bottom of the quality of life indices or at worst missing out all together due to lack of data. There is no place like Somalia in this world bulging with people – nation that is food aid dependent and cramped in to IDP camps.


Al Qaeda is still a threat. We cannot pretend somehow that because Barack Hussein Obama is President, suddenly everything is going to be OK

For the first time in two decades America showed its true colours In an interview with the BBC radio 4 flagship today programme on September 16. Ahmedou Ould-Abdallah the UN Special Representative to Somalia said he supports the idea of talks with any Somali. “I invite any Somali, whatever he is, extremist or not, to make the first step to rebuild his country. I am open to all of them, any Somali who needs to make peace, my door is open, my telephone lines are open, I am ready to call them and I call them.”
In contrast the US Ambassador to Kenya, Michael Ranneberge told Mike Thompson of the BBC “No, definitely not. The Al Shabab lacks any legitimacy in Somalia. I mean, they are an extremist group with significant outside support. I think that is, by and large, something anathema to the Somali people. I know what our position is. It is not appropriate for us or for the TFG to be talking to the Al Shabab. They don’t have the legitimacy that entitles them to be talked to,”
The American policy makers often go crazy, technically irrelevant, when looking in to Muslim countries – Palestine, Afghanistan, Yemen, Iraq, Islamic republic of Iran and Somalia to mention a few. The international community must understand that they can’t blame the Islamist to have a different world outlook because they are product of two decades of neglects and short term negative interventions sponsored by the international community. The international community should grow out of the delusion that labelling some groups as terrorists and others as moderates will sort out problems on the ground. The Islamists are nationals who command the confidence of their people, mainly the younger generations, and are undeniably home grown. How come they rule southern Somalia including the capital and some parts of the central regions while the TFG that gets material and diplomatic support from the west is confined to the AMISOM occupation force’s garrisons?
This policy of one step forward and two steps backward adopted by President Brack Obama is nothing more then the preservation of the heinous short - term tactical counterterrorism paradigm of his predecessor. A policy that succeeded in maintaining Somalia in a confused situation of no war no peace that created conducive environment for predatory opportunist Ethiopia to take advantage, with US diplomatic blessing and finance, by arming tribes men(Ahlu Sunna) to perpetuate the Somali civil war with the view of destroying what ever is left of the fabric of the Somali society with out giving due consideration to the human catastrophe this lame policy has already created – the worst humanitarian disaster ever.
Sh. Sharif’s TFG: when fully ripe, the fruit falls of its own accord
Sh. Sharif was installed at the helm of the TFG faction through dubious voting system - 250 votes in his pocket before the voting commenced. We vividly remember the excessive euphoria that followed to a degree which puts shame to the Somalia independence year. Parties were thrown all over the place, across time zones, from Australia to America on the inclination that the Somali’s prayer for peace is finally answered by Allah. The few critics, including me, who foresaw the deadly struggle ahead, were shunned and labelled as anti – Somali as the Somalis have minuscule tolerance for accommodation of differences of opinion and constructive criticism – see Bueatiful ones are not yet born. The defeat and formal withdrawal of the much hated Ethiopian forces added an extra spice to the festive season but the reality that they will come back through the window with vengeance didn’t cross the mind of the masses at the occasion of ecstasy which sadly faded away with in three months – the Islamist’s show of force in May revealed that Sh. Sharif is after all not the giant we were led to believe but a looser standing on a thin layer of ice.


I heard Ahlu-Sunna too, are coming to unseat me but I hope president Obama will rescue me instead of Haiti!



The flock mentality at the time ignored the fact that the Sharif is a hired man, by the west, to fight their war on terrorism. US proxy war against his own comrades with whom he shared a lot for a quite good time – if they were Al – Qaida affiliates then certainly Sh. Sharif was one of the leaders of the group. The bottom line is, Sh. Sharif is contracted to carry out their inhumane policy of containment, Islamists fighting against Islamists, in which the consequential damage to the civilians - the destabilization of the masses, formation of un-catered for IDP and refugee camps, the flattening of cities and towns carry no weight and is totally out of the equation. The core of this policy is to keep the threat (Islamists) with in the boundaries of Somalia no matter how grave the human cost factor is as long as western soldiers are not in the firing line.
We find the celebrated TFG, after a year, confined to the AMISON bases with the media serving as its only live link to the outside – like a computer virus it only exists on the web pages and in the radio air waves. The TFG lost the hearts and minds of the masses as it failed to deliver even the minimum of its manifesto targets – reconciliation talks, good governance, all inclusive government, security and the likes.
According To the TFG’s new speak; reconciliation means no more then parading, in the glare of the media, individuals drawn from the bottomless pool of unemployed youth in Mogadishu and claim that they defected to their side. A week hardly passes without them alleging that individuals, not groups, joined their ranks and on the contrary a day hardly passes without an in fight between the TFG militia, their defection or arms funnelling to the Islamists side. Professor Abdirahman Ibbi, Minister of Fishery, declared in Jedah on the charismas day that the reconciliation process failed all together due to what he termed as the intransigency on the other side. Sheikh Abdirahman Janqow, Minister of religious affairs, a very close associate of president Sharif, declared in 12 December on radio Mogadishu, TFG Radio, that he regrets fighting against Colonel Abdulahi yusuf because he admitted they found out in the hard way what the Colonel was preaching all that time – Alshabab and Hisbi Islam are not Muslims. At the end of the session the minister issued a Fatwa which says any body who kills Al- Shabab and Hisbi – Islam members will go to paradise without any doubt.
Reconciliation process as we know was not in the menu of the TFG as attested by the US Ambassador and will never be because one can’t rationally expect a treacherous man to win back through negotiation the same friends he betrayed and secondly he can’t negotiate from a position of weakness – TFG is not a Somali commodity but a foreign entity catapulted in to Villa Somalia and as such quarantined at its first point of entry which is Villa Somalia and thus is rendered as the weakest faction of all the factions in Somalia.
Verifiable and tangible results are what counts not specialisation in disinformation, foreign trips and a new speak. Since the TFG’s inception in February the following points are the most noted ones accomplished in its name:
1. Free hand given to AMISOM occupation forces.
2. The ceding of Somalia continental shelf to Kenya.
3. The fiasco of the E passport.
4. The insane constitution drafted for Mogadishu.
5. Printing of national currency in Sudan.
6. The fanning of the catastrophic un- winnable war in Mogadishu.
AMISOM forces turned the Bakara Market and other residential areas in Mogadishu in to a civilian slaughter houses. When ever the Islamists attack often using small arms such as AK47; they retaliate by using on the Bakara Market all kinds of artillery shells including the notorious BM 21 with the full knowledge that the market is the largest market in Mogadishu and is teeming with civilians at all times; see AMISOM December NEWS LEETER and study it in light of the realities on the ground – AMISOM is completely out of touch.
Bakara market trader’s president Mr. Ali Dheere repeatedly petitioned to the TFG and went to the press so many times requesting the AU to restrain the barbaric AMISOM troops that are engaged on a mission of indiscriminate bombardment which caused the annihilation of the masses on the one hand and obstruction of the return of refugees on the other hand - Mr. Ali Dheere is a lone fighter against the human rights violations taking place in his market because the so called Hawiye elders, who were the frontline vocalists, during the reign of colonel Abdullah Ahmed turned in to collaborators this time.
Since February last year the death toll of the civilians in the market and its vicinity stands around 1,850 and the injured stand at least four times more according to Mogadishu hospital workers. The hospitals receive on average 30 fatally injured or dead civilians in a week from the Bakara market and other residential districts which eclipsed the other war casualties. The busiest hours of AMISOM gunners are the arrival and departure times of the Sharif and his prime minister – they call for human sacrifices as well come and goodbye gestures. Hardly a day passes without reports of casualties from Bakara Market but the Question many of the Somalis are asking is where are the Hawiye in the Diaspora who went mad and made their religion to demonstrate every other day in most of the western capitals when Colonel Abdilahi Yusuf was the president of the same TFG? Does it mean that Hawiye killing Hawiye doesn’t fit in to the frame work of crimes against humanity or naked tribalism was the motive behind all the crocodile tears?
The TFG has neither the power nor the willingness to stop the daily massacre of the civilians in their hundreds which is taking place right under their noses but incredibly avoids to talk about the Bakara market issue in its entirety and instead loves to chant the over used American war on terror lines when such mantra has no relevance to the matter in hand. At the time of this writing a match between two teams of young football players in Wardhiigley became the latest casualty. Ten of the players were killed instantly by the AMISOM artillery shells from the presidential palace while the rest are mortally wounded. The Occupation force of AMISOM is the real threat to the lively hood of Mogadishu people and its mission defies human logic with the exception of Mr. Ahmedou Abdallah, the UN secretary general representative, who is watching the failure of his second project (the enlarged TFG) from the comforts of his office with glee as he is amazingly rewarded for failure.
The TFG made its new year’s resolve to wrist the control of Mogadishu from the Islamists and to foil the Islamists planned suicide bombs which unfortunately is none news item for the Somalis. When asked by the media as to why people should take your word this time when you were saying the same thing over and over for the last year with no results to show for? The TFG response was “this is our last time and we will honour our word in the first months of the New Year”. The TFG’s military strategy is out in the public to such a degree the names of the commanding officers of each of the three fronts they planned to attack are known and also the type of support AMISOM forces are lending is also not secret. The fact that the war which started in May last year after a relative brief lull will resume again this year shocked Mogadishu residents who lost so many of their love ones to it. The dwindling civilian population in Mogadishu who are financially able are heading for the overcrowded IDP camps before it gets late – a new year’s present from America.
The ceding of portion of Somali’s continental shelf to Kenya by the TFG in exchange for some diplomatic favours attracted the anger of the nation and as a consequence the TFG legislative chamber abstained to ratify the agreement. Sh. Sharif who has no structured political experience and for that matter no work experience beyond Quranic School teacher is in no position to gage the cost of his love in signing any dotted line asked to sign by his handlers – confederation agreement with Ethiopia will pass under his pen without a pause.
A batch of new Somali currency will be printed in Sudan following an agreement signed in Khartoum on Tuesday 12 January at a cost of 17 Millions Dollars. The Managing Director of Sudan’s Currency Printing office Mohammed Al-Hassan Al-Bahi signed for Sudan Government while the Somali Finance Minister Sharif Hassan Sheikh(Sharif Sakiin) signed for the TFG faction. This deal is from insane minds and will bring in an insane inflation to the economy of the already starving nation unless it is turned down by the people. The TFG is a host guarded by AMISOM and Black Water mercenaries against the people they claim to represent so this exercise is just a robbery – the TFG wants to exchange fake notes for real money that has confidence of the people.

Drafting a constitution for Benadir Region is a very delicate undertaking which needs the wider consultation and participation of the entire stake holders of the region and has a timeline of several years not the quick fix of the TFG. It is absolutely wrong to contemplate about drafting a charter or constitution at a time when the city is in the control of the Islamists and under the bombardment of AMISOM. The national constitution should come first followed by the regional charter – putting the horse before the cart.
The launch of E passport in November 2006 was a project over marketed by the then TFG. Colonel Gafow, a former Deputy Director of the Immigration Department during the Siyad Barre's regime, said the e-passport made by a Sharjah-based company known as "Best Solutions" makes Somalia the first African country to issue such hi-tech forgery-proof passports. Colonel Gafow confirmed Passports were to be issued in four colours to various categories - red for diplomatic missions, brown for services, black for the public and light blue for travel documents only. New passports with electronic national identity cards will cost US$ 150 for Somalis outside Somalia and US$ 100 for Somalis residing within Somalia, making it one of the most expensive passports issued by foreign embassies in the Middle East as the going rate for other nationals is in the range between US$ 30-50.
14 processing centres were opened and any body who can cough out extra $50 on top of
the officially stated prize needn’t to appear in person in any office as the go between industries brings the final product in the comforts of his/her house. Somalis and non Somalis collected the new passport with details to their liking before the project went bankrupt. The new passports are as fraudulent as the old ones but the project netted for the colonel a lump sum of $1,984 900. The colonel invested his looted money in building of palaces in Mogadishu – he is currently building a palace in Buulo Xuubey just opposite the palace of Mohamed Sheikh Osman(the corrupt ex-finance minister of Somalia)
Ethiopia’s ultimate horse: - the retuned Warlords of AHLU Sunna Wal Jama
Ethiopian run warlords under the banner of Ahlu Sunna are tasked to reinvigorate the war as an alternative to the incapable TFG. Warlords Abdi Waal and Farah Dabageed have already started unnecessary wars in Galguduud and Hiraan respectively. Baay and Bakool regions are to be torched by warlords Saransoor and Haabsade while Gedo and Juba Lands are reserved for Bare Hiiraale. The fact is the people who are squeezing themselves under the new brand name paradoxically have no religious affiliation of any sort – they are mercenaries and murderers. Ahlu Sunna is the same old notorious warlords, under a new contract from Ethiopia, to wreak havoc on the Somali people once more.
On Dec 13 the spiritual leader of Ahlu Sunna Wal Jama, Sheikh Mohamud Sheikh Hassan Farah, accompanied by up to 14 member delegation visited Minister Seyoum Mesfin(Ethiopia’s Foreign Minister) to get the latest instructions. The so called Sheikh of Ahlu Sunna’s objective was to get more Military aid and diplomatic muscle to muffle the dissenting wing of Ahlu Sunna. Minister Seyoum granted both in exchange that Ahlu Sunna gives lip support to the caged TFG to which the Sheikh accepted without any hesitation. Ethiopia not Eritrea is the one middling in the Somali affairs and should have accordingly being sanctioned by the UN (US property) two years ago.
Prior to the above mentioned trip to Addis Abbaba by the controversial Sheik the state of affairs of Ahlu Sunna was pretty confusing and chaotic. Conflicting reports were coming from Ahlu – Sunna on major policy issues for a quite good time. When Sh. Sharif put them in league with al-Shabab in November; the speaker of Ahlu Sunna Mr.Qadi dressed the Sharif down and demanded a formal apology while another members of the faction accused their speaker as talking in personal capacity. The TFG interior Minister claimed to have concluded an agreement with Ahlu- Sunna to join the TFG government on the 7th Dec 09 but then the official speaker of Ahlu – Sunna denied the existence of such agreement. Sheikh Abduwali Sh. Mohamed, the treasurer of Ahlu – Sunna, held a press conference on the 10th Dec in Dusamareb, the command centre of Ahlu Sunna, and declared that he is the officer who signed the agreement with the TFG in Mogadishu and that Mr. Qadi’s, the speaker, denial is from his pocket.
On the 13 January the speaker of Ahlu Sunna made a policy U turn and for the first time declared at a press conference In Guriceel that Ahlu Sunna is part and parcel of the TFG. This sudden change of heart is exposing that they have no policy, believe or creed of their own but mercenaries under instructions. When the going gets tough we will soon see factions in Ahlu Sunna as it is the long standing tradition of clan based organisation.
According to Elman Human Rights the fighting in Galguduud and Hiraan region between the Islamists and the Ethiopian pawns of Ahlu Sunna resulted in the death of at least 138 and 344 injuries in less then two weeks. The renewed war has also displaced 63,000 in Hiiraan and Galguduud regions at a time water is scarce as it is in the mildest of the dry season. This bad reading triggered the alarm buttons of the tribal leaders in the area as Ahlu Sunna is based on clan system and needs the support of the elders to continue its peace spoiling activities which is an affront to the peaceful Suufi sect – sit back and watch Suufi Hadra and contemplate about how their creed and name is trampled over by notorious warlords. The clans with in Ahlu Sunna are about to fight in the sharing of the Ethiopian arms and ammunitions as no sub clan can trust the other. The intellectuals of the area are questioning the viability of this senseless contract because they spoted that their tribesmen will ultimately be sacrificed at the altar of the Ethiopian Orthodox Church for no noble cause.

Conclusion and Recommendations: - Elephant tusks cannot grow out of a dog's mouth.
It is said “Once bitten by a snake, you are even frightened by a rope that resembles a snake”. The successive TFGs governments of the last two decades failed to flourish in the Somali soil and the root cause is that they were all imposed from the top. The current TFG’s performance is so poor that I can hardly find a word to describe as I couldn’t find in the contemporary history a predecessor which I can compare to. The cost of keeping the TFG in Villa Somalia is becoming unbearably expensive for the Somalis as it demands the blood of innocent people as a form of payment.
I think the time has come for the US and its allies to retire from Somali internal political affaires and to leave Somalia for the Somalis to sort out their problems in one way or the other. Al Shabaab was an insignificant splinter group from the Islamic courts when the US unleashed Ethiopian army into Somali and that faulty policy created the formidable forces of Al Shabbaab and Hisbi Islam. I see even more dangerous strain to come if the flawed policy is kept operational this year through Ahlu Sunna Wal Jama(to replay the bygone warlord era).
I am sure a victor will emerge within a short time and the international community’s two major concerns, piracy and terrorism, would naturally be addressed involuntarily as its remedy will come out of the wash of the would be state machinery. It is much easier to monitor the activities of a state, no matter how bad it is, then marauding armed forces and eventually the Islamists will be tamed by the demands of the running of a modern state which is beyond their comprehension at this point in time.
The TFG failed the 15th time and there is no way elephant tusk, nationally accepted government, will grow out of its mouth even if the same experiment is repeated thousand times.

Mr. Abdikarim Haji Abdi Buh
Email:- abdikarimbuh@yahoo.com
Wardheernews.com Contributer

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

There's a movement to radically change California government, by getting rid of career politicians and chopping their salaries in half. A group known as Citizens for California Reform wants to make the California legislature a part time time job, just like it was until 1966.



www.onlineuniversalwork.com

Why cows may be hiding something but AI can spot it

  By Chris Baraniuk Technology of Business reporter Published 22 hours ago Share IMAGE SOURCE, GETTY IMAGES Image caption, Herd animals like...